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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP052 (1996)

ARLP052 Propagation de KT7H

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52  ARLP052
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  December 13, 1996
To all radio amateurs

ARLP052 Propagation de KT7H

Solar flux has still been moving off of the recent flurry of
activity caused by region 7999.  More activity wasn't expected until
this region returned and solar flux rose after December 17, but it
looks as if we are seeing increased activity a bit early as the flux
rises in the past couple of days.

Average sunspot numbers were down about 8 points compared to last
week, solar flux was down over 11 points, and the average A index
was up about 1.7 points.

The projection from NOAA SESC from a few days ago says the flux
should rise again and peak around 94 right around Christmas, and
geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet.

Paul 5X4F/5Z4FO writes this week about 10 meter openings from Arua
in the northwest corner of Uganda.

''I have had two 10 meter openings into the US from here since July
1995.  The first was 30 Oct. 1995 when 24 East Coast stations were
worked between 1744 and 1832 UTC.  The second one was during the
CQWW CW contest on 24 Nov. 1996 when 17 East Coast stations were
worked between 1447 and 1535 UTC.  The last opening corresponds to
the high solar activity on that day.''

Paul mentions the ARRL 10 meter contest coming this weekend, and
says that he made 53 contacts in the 1994 contest and 95 in 1995.

NS0B wrote this week that he believes the solar minimum as already
occurred, based upon his analysis of moving averages of solar flux
and sunspot number.  He does a smoothed 365 day running average and
says that the solar flux bottomed out between May 15 and 23, and has
been rising since, while the bottom for sunspot numbers is during
the same period around May 19.  Based on this observation he says
that the recent solar cycle has been one of the shorter ones at 9
years, 8 months.

Sunspot Numbers for December 5 through 11 were 0, 0, 12, 13, 20, 17
and 31, with a mean of 13.3.  10.7 cm flux was 69.6, 69.7, 69.2,
68.6, 73.7, 72.4 and 77.6, with a mean of 71.5.  Planetary A indices
for the same period were 2, 1, 4, 3, 7, 18, and 10, with a mean of


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