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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP048 (2019)

ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  December 2, 2019
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

Another week went by with no sunspots. Average daily sunspot number
this week rose from 69.9 to 70.4. Average planetary A index rose
from 3.6 to 8.3.

Predicted solar flux is 70 on November 29 through December 6, 69 on
December 7-8, 70 on December 9-22, 69 on December 23 through January
4, and 70 on January 5-12.

Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on November 29 through December
2, 8 on December 3-4, 5 on December 5-7, 8 on December 8, 5 on
December 9-12, 6 on December 13, 5 on December 14-17, then 12 and 10
on December 18-19, 8 on December 20-25, 5 on December 26 through
January 8, 6 on January 9, and 5 on January 10-12.

OK1HH sent this:

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 29-December
24, 2019.

"Geomagnetic field will be, 
Quiet on: November 29-30, December 1, 10-16. 
Quiet to unsettled on: December 2, 7-9, 17, 20-14. 
Quiet to active on: December 3-6. 
Unsettled to active on: December 18-19. 
Active to disturbed: none.

"Solar wind will intensify on: December (3-9, 13-14,) 16-17, (18-24).

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW of Easton, Pennsylvania observed effects from
this meteor event: .

This event is mentioned in the new video from WX6SWW referenced at
the end of this bulletin.

Mike wrote:

"I had two low, one medium, and one high quality pings on FM
broadcast (89.1 MHz) during the peak which lasted for sixteen
minutes from 11:52 pm - 12:08 am.

"A dual purpose home/auto Visteon HD Jump Radio with an auto monopole
antenna in the horizontal plane poking out the second story radio
room north window that is physically orientated to the north/south,
giving a RF beam direction from the west-east.

"Nothing was seen on the AirSpy HF+ SDR Console spectrum analyzer,
waterfall displays with an Antennacraft TV VHF-Lo band (channels
2-6), five element Yagi, model Y526, laying on the top of the
backyard shed with a 30 degree pitch angle aimed westerly on analog
TV channel 2 (video 55.250, -/+), for detection of active Canadian

"In my opinion the RF meteor scatter propagation outburst activity
was fairly good within a short matter of time."

A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: .

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at,

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at, For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at

Sunspot numbers for November 21 through 27, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 69.6, 70.2, 70.6,
69.5, 70.4, and 71.5, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A
indices were 12, 13, 10, 11, 5, 3, and 4, with a mean of 8.3. Middle
latitude A index was 7, 8, 7, 8, 5, 3, and 2, with a mean of 5.7.


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