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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP048 (2011)

ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 28, 2011
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

This bulletin is issued Monday morning to fill the gap between the
early bulletin last week, and the regularly scheduled bulletin this
I mentioned last week that the data at the end of each bulletin is
formatted so that the WA4TTK Solar Data Plotting Utility can parse
the data out of each bulletin and apply it to the graph.  Scott has
just put up a new data file that I sent him last week, running from
January 1, 1989 through November 22, 2011. With that updated data
file, you can use this bulletin to update the data through November
27, and apply data from subsequent bulletins on into the future.
You can download the program and the supplemental data file at  The data file will be updated in
the next day or so to reflect some corrections to sunspot data noted
I also mentioned recently that some of the sunspot numbers released
by NOAA didn't seem right.  I just got word from Mike Husler at NOAA
that data posted recently, like that record breaking day in which
the sunspot number hit 220, were wrong, and the corrected data is
now on their site.  His email said, "Sunspot Number, Sunspot Area,
Number of New Regions, Number of Spotted Regions, and Number of
Spots calculations were at times incorrect on the external web for
about 1 month.  The current values are the correct values.  Please
use them."
Not sure how to correct the record on this, except to note it here,
and if you are keeping track of data with this bulletin as a source,
that you go back and correct the bad data.
The correct data is posted here:
Between October 18 and November 9 the data on 18 of those 23 days
was bad.  On October 18 the SSN changes from 155 to 144, October 19
162 to 140, October 20 195 to 159, October 21 207 to 184, October 23
128 to 102, October 24 151 to 125, October 25 147 to 121, October 26
104 to 91, October 27 98 to 85, October 28 104 to 91, November 1 141
to 129, November 2 121 to 109, November 3 161 to 149, November 4 100
to 88, November 5 135 to 123, November 6 144 to 132, November 8 160
to 148, and November 9 220 to 208.
This means that the data in propagation bulletins numbered 42, 43,
44 and 45 had partially bad data.
The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA shows solar flux at 140 on
November 28, 145 on November 29-30, and 150, 155, 155, 155, 160,
165, 165, 160, 160, 155, 150 and 140 on December 1-12, followed by
135 on December 13-19.
Planetary A index over the same period is 12, 18, 12, 10, and 8 on
November 28 through December 2, then 5 on December 3-24.
At 2220 UTC on November 27 the Australian IPS Radio and Space
Services issued an alert predicting a geomagnetic disturbance on
November 29-30, with unsettled to active conditions on November 29
and Active to Minor Storm November 30.  This is due to a wind stream
from a coronal hole.
Randy Leedy, WS4C of Greenville, South Carolina has some
observations on the CQ Worldwide CW DX contest:  "With good solar
numbers this year, I decided to try something new (for me) for CQWW
CW: go for 100 countries from my modest station of 100w to a tree-
hung antenna farm consisting of a G5RV and a trap dipole.  I started
at about 0030 and found the bands so exciting overnight that I never
went to bed.  I'd never have imagined that I would hit 100 countries
at breakfast time on Saturday, at about 1400."
"The toughest thing about the conditions was that from about 0900
on, most signals on 40 and 20m were coming in on both short and long
path, in many cases with both paths at nearly equal strengths,
making copy pretty rough on my single-element antennas.  Looking
back at my log, I can see that, if I had thought to try it, I could
probably have worked all continents (except Antarctica) within a
period of 10-15 minutes on 40m at about 0800, when pretty much the
whole dark hemisphere--plus an hour or two past the grayline--was
coming in strong."
"In closing, just a soapbox plea for ops calling in the big simplex
pileups:  don't spot your signal directly on the station running the
Q's, especially if you have a long call sign and a big amp and you
like to send slowly and often!  If all the callers tuned 50 hertz or
so above or below the station running Q's, everybody could hear him
much better, the rate would improve, and everyone would have a much
better shot at QSO."
Thanks Randy!
Glenn Packard, K4ZOT of Atlanta, Georgia had a blast on 10 meter FM
on Sunday, November 27.  "I had an unusual contact on 10 meters
today on 29.6 MHz at 2045 UTC from Atlanta, GA.  I saw Jamaica on
the DX clusters, a DX entity I do not have, and clicked on the spot
using my TS-850S.  I did not focus on the exact frequency until I
tried to tune-in the voice.  I soon realized it was FM at 29.600.  I
did get a response from 6Y1X on FM, but he could not get my entire
call sign.  I then called one more time and I got ZL2OK from
Northern NZ who was 5x5.  We exchanged signal reports, names and QTH
and he then faded away.  I then heard a K7 and a W6 on FM.  These
were my first FM contacts on 10 meters.  Interesting FM propagation
today on the upper end of 10 meters."
John Coleman, K5JVC of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma reports:  "I'm on
cloud nine!  I've received several stations from the Indian Ocean on
PSK31 over the last year, but as a QRP station I just couldn't make
contact with them.  Until tonight.  I made contact with FR5MV at
01:46z on 20 meters with 5 watts (FT-817) into a 22 ft commercial
multi-band vertical (Hygain AV-620).  I can't begin to tell you what
a great feeling it is to land a station 10,000 miles away with 5
watts that I've been watching for a year.  Where's my wine glass?!"
Vito Leo, ON6VL of Belgium writes, "With the incredible openings on
10m, I noticed that in the morning in Eu we hear VK/ZL both SP and
LP, which translates into significant echoes on the signals.  So
this week I tried to send very short 'dits' in full break-in mode
and managed to consistently hear my own signal going full circle
around the earth, going over South America (South West of me) and
coming back, I presume, from North East, on the back of my beam.
Beaming in other directions would not produce such echoes, which
confirms that this no artifact.  Kind of fun!  It's actually a neat
way to probe propagation without any external help or information."
Thanks, Vito!
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at,
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at Find more good
information and tutorials on propagation at .
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at
Sunspot numbers for November 21 through 27 were 101, 132, 123, 139,
171, 133, and 123, with a mean of 131.7. 10.7 cm flux was 141.1,
142.4, 140, 137.2, 135.2, 132.8, and 135.2, with a mean of 137.7.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 5, 5, 4, 3, and 6, with a
mean of 4.9.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 7, 4, 4, 3,
4, and 5 with a mean of 4.6.


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