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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP047 (2002)

ARLP047 Propagation de K7VVV

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47  ARLP047
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA  November 15, 2002
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP047 Propagation de K7VVV

Solar flux and the sunspot count increased this week by a modest
amount. Geomagnetic indices were still somewhat unsettled, but the
average daily A index for the week dropped from 19.3 to 12.

This quieting of geomagnetic activity is nice for HF operators, but
it looks like we could be in for more upset this weekend. Currently
the predicted planetary A index for Friday through Monday is 20, 30,
25 and 15.

It would be nice to predict better conditions for the ARRL Phone
Sweepstakes this weekend, but at least it is a domestic contest.
It's not like trying to work DX over a polar route, which becomes
difficult during high geomagnetic activity.

Why is geomagnetic activity likely to rise? There is a coronal hole
rotating into a position favorable for affecting the earth, plus
sunspot regions 191 and 192 are potential sources of flares. Region
197 also has flare potential, and it is rotating into view.

But not everyone dreads the solar wind and high geomagnetic
activity. Jon, N0JK writes from Wichita, Kansas that he has been
enjoying the high K and A indices on 6 meters. He reports that on
November 3 and 5 there were strong F2 openings on 6 meters from most
of the United States to the Caribbean and South America. On November
3 when John was mobile he worked TI5KD, J3/K6MYC and 8R1RPN, and
K5CM in Oklahoma worked 3XY7C. On November 5 Jon was again mobile
and worked VP2MJD, and W0EKT in Kansas worked ZD7MY.

Sunspot numbers for November 7 through 13 were 259, 252, 174, 219,
197, 155, and 182, with a mean of 205.4. 10.7 cm flux was 189.8,
189, 190.6, 191.4, 184.7, 178.2, and 182.4, with a mean of 186.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 8, 9, 15, 12, 14, and 12,
with a mean of 12.


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