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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP045 (2018)

ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 9, 2018
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

At 2244 UTC on November 7 the Australian Space Forecast Centre
issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning due to a co-rotating
interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream on November 9-10. Active geomagnetic conditions are predicted
for November 9, and unsettled to active conditions on November 10.

We saw another week with no sunspots, and the average daily solar
flux softened from 68.6 to 67.7. Average planetary A index rose from
4.4 to 12, while average mid-latitude A index went from 3.4 to 8.1.
On November 5 the planetary A index rose to 35, while Alaska's
college A index went to 44, indicating disturbed conditions.

Predicted planetary A index from USAF and NOAA is milder than the
Australian prediction, with the outlook for November 9-13 at 16, 18,
12, 14, and 10, then 5 on November 14-24, and 8 on November 25, 5 on
November 26-30, then 15, 20, 12 and 8 on December 1-4, 5 on December
5-6, then 15 and 12 on December 7-8, and 5 on December 9-23.

Predicted solar flux is 70 on November 9-12, 68 on November 13-16,
69 on November 15, 70 on November 16-17, 69 on November 18-19, 68 on
November 20 through December 8, 70 on December 9-14, 69 on December
15-16 and 68 on December 17-23.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the
period November 9 to December 5, 2018.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on November 14-16, 19-20, 23-26, 30
Quiet to unsettled on November 13, 27-29, December 5
Quiet to active on November 11, 17-18, 21-22
Unsettled to active on November 9-10, 12, December 3-4
Active to disturbed on December 1-2

"Solar wind will intensify on November (9,) 10-12, (17-23, 30) and on
December 1-3, (4)

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Dr. Tamitha Skov posted a new video on November 4:

D. Moore and Max White both sent this richly detailed article from
the European Space Agency (ESA) about space weather:

D. Moore sent another ESA article:

Bruce Smith, AC4G in Tennessee sent this on November 2.

"Just wanted to share an exciting QSO I had on 23 October around
2230z. I was tuning 80m CW when all of a sudden I heard a CQ.
Following the greyline I used the beverage to make QSO with VK9XG. I
switched from NE beverage to the SE and heard the CQs at 559 and
made the logbook a new band country for me.

"A day or so later while tuning 160m at approximately 1205z, I heard
my first Christmas Island signals with SWL report of 539. Several NA
stations calling causing some confusion as they transmitted while
VK9 transmitted, but still was very exciting to hear on top band.
Signals faded at 1223z. Maybe a QSO next time.

"I should have stated this was a longpath QSO using my vertical for
my transmit antenna."

Check out AC4G at for interesting details on his operation.

Mike, W9NY of Chicago sent this report last week regarding the CQ
World Wide SSB DX Contest:

"Despite the reports of no sunspots, DX stations were plentiful
during the contest sometimes with signals above S9 from my Dune
Acres Indiana QTH.  And with a TH7 aiming toward Europe I had South
Americans calling me off the back of the beam. I think that 15
meters must often be open when it sounds completely dead. This CQ
Worldwide contest was a perfect example. I worked over 70 countries
just on 15!" 

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at, For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at

Sunspot numbers for November 1 through 7, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 66.8, 67.6, 67.4, 66.6,
68.3, 68.8, and 68.7, with a mean of 67.7. Estimated planetary A
indices were 5, 4, 4, 16, 35, 10, and 10, with a mean of 12.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 3, 7, 22, 9, and 8, with
a mean of 8.1.


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