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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP044 (2012)

ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44  ARLP044
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 2, 2012
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity quieted this week. Average daily sunspot numbers were
down nearly 37 points to 58.4. Average daily solar flux declined 27
points to 116.9.

Predicted solar flux values are 100 for November 2-3, 105 on
November 4-5, 110 on November 6-9, 120 on November 10-11, 125 on
November 12-13, 130 on November 14, and peaking at 135 on November
15-20, then 130, 125 and 120 on November 21-23, and 115 on November
24-26. It then drops to a minimum of 100 on November 29 through
December 1, then back to a high of 135 by mid-December.

The predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on November 2-3, 5 on
November 4-5, 7 on November 6-7, then 10, 12 and 15 on November
8-10, 5 on November 11 through December 4, and 10, 20 and 15 again
on December 5-7, followed by a quiet 5 again through December 16.

A coronal mass ejection hit Earth's magnetic field at 1530 UTC on
October 31. This sparked aurora and contributed to the planetary and
mid-latitude A index of 17 on November 1, with the college A index
(in Alaska) at a stormy 48. The activity is subsiding, with a
declining A index through the weekend.

This will be important to domestic HF contesters, as the ARRL
November CW Sweepstakes is this weekend. Conditions should be pretty
good for the contest.

The geomagnetic forecast from OK1HH says quiet to unsettled activity
November 2-3, mostly quiet November 4, quiet to active November 5-6,
quiet to unsettled November 7-8, quiet to active November 9, active
to disturbed November 10, quiet to active November 11, mostly quiet
November 12-14, quiet November 15-18,.mostly quiet November 19,
quiet November 20-22, and mostly quiet November 23-24.

Last weekend (October 27-28) was the SSB portion of the CQ World
Wide DX Contest. The CW weekend is right after Thanksgiving,
November 24-25. Jeff Hartley, N8II in West Virginia reports:  "I
operated 10 meters single band in the contest, but the band was
nearly closed as expected at the start, so I migrated down for a few
20 meter Qs. 20 was open nearly world wide for the first 2 hours
with excellent conditions over the pole from just west of JA all the
way across to northern Europe; there were also a few very
southwestern Europeans workable and the Middle East was loud as
usual at that time of day. I worked many Russians including all call
areas. RT4RO was S9+25-30 dB. BA, YE2, A7, VU, EY were all logged
along with some very loud Africans (C5A, D4C, 5Z4EE). VK1CC called
in via long path around 0100z, unusual to work that path so late.
This was probably the best 20 meters has ever been at the contest
start in my many years of contesting.

"The solar flux averaged around 120 over the weekend with Saturday
being slightly better. This allowed excellent conditions to all of
Europe and fairly long openings to Russia including zone 17 UA9s.
But propagation was very limited to central Asia (worked two UNs
with good signals Sunday) and the Far East (none logged) beyond JA;
conditions were better to there last year. Good European conditions
and activity allowed me to make over 2,150 QSOs with 1,000 in the
log by 1715Z Saturday!  There was activity up to above 28.8 MHz
during the peak time to Europe. Even stations with poor antennas and
running QRP were easy to work for hours. Conditions to the south
Pacific were rather poor (worse than expected) except from
2300-2330z the last day; mid afternoon to late afternoon. Sunday was
pretty much dead that direction except for KH6. KH2/KH0 stations
were extremely loud from 2100z until 2300z, much louder than the
JAs, about 10 stations were logged total from those 2 countries."

Steve Brunt, K6AAB of Fresno, California reports, "Conditions this
weekend were fabulous!  10 meters was open until 0200z on the West
Coast. Could have worked 10 single band, but didn't.  15 meters was
also great with worldwide openings. 20 meters was open, but odd
propagation. I could hear lots of Eastern Europeans, but couldn't
work them. I completely missed Zone 15 on 20."

Jon Jones, N0JK in Kansas reports, "Sunday afternoon there were
great conditions in the CQ WW SSB contest to the Far East. Many
Japanese stations were 20 over S9 on 10 meters just before sunset
Sunday afternoon. I worked AH2, AH0, Japan, China, and Hawaii with
100 watts and a CB mag-mount whip. Most stations worked on first or
second call."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at,

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at, For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at Find more good
information and tutorials on propagation at

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at

Sunspot numbers for October 25 through 31 were 58, 71, 59, 55, 75,
56, and 35, with a mean of 58.4. 10.7 cm flux was 130, 130.7, 121.7,
117, 108.4, 106.3, and 104.2, with a mean of 116.9. Estimated
planetary A indices were 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, and 5, with a mean of
3.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 4, 3, 3, 2, 1, and 5,
with a mean of 3.


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