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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP043 (2000)

ARLP043 Propagation de K7VVV

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43  ARLP043
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA  October 27, 2000
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP043 Propagation de K7VVV

Average solar flux for the past week was exactly the same as the
previous week. It was 160.9 for the past week, and 160.2 for the
week previous. Average sunspot numbers dropped about ten points.

Solar flux is rising, and is expected to peak on November 2 around
190. But the main interest among many radio amateurs is the forecast
for this weekend, when the CQ Worldwide DX Phone Contest commences.
Unfortunately, on October 25 a full halo coronal mass ejection was
detected blasting away from the sun, and effects may be felt this
weekend. The predicted planetary A index for Friday through Monday
is 10, 15, 15 and 12. This does not signal terrible conditions, but
the outlook for Saturday and Sunday is for unsettled to active
geomagnetic conditions.

Solar flux for the same four days is predicted at 175, 175, 180 and
180. After the November 2 peak in activity, solar flux is expected
to bottom out around 155 on November 6 or 7.

For this weekend, we are offering three path projections, which are
generalized from the East Coast, central and West Coast of the
United states. The target areas are simplified to Germany, Brazil,
Australia and Japan. The projections are restricted to the five HF
bands on which the contest operates.

From the East Coast to Germany, 80 meters 2100-0800z (best 0030-
0530z), 40 meters 1930-0930z (best 2230-0600z), 20 meters
1200-0000z, 15 meters 1300-1930z, 10 meters 1500-1730z. To Brazil,
80 meters 2230-0930z (best 0100-0830z), 40 meters 2200-1000z (best
2300-0900z), 20 meters open all hours, best 2230-0900z, worst
1400-1800z, 15 meters 1200-0000z (stronger toward the end of the
period), 10 meters 1230-2200z. To Australia, 80 meters 0900-1200z,
40 meters 0830-1300z, 20 meters 1230-1430z, 15 meters 1400-1600z and
around 1900z, 10 meters possibly 2130-2300z. To Japan, 80 meters
0700-1230z (best 0830-1100z), 40 meters 0600-1400z (best
0830-1130z), 20 meters open most hours of the day, strongest
0630-0930z, 1330-1600z and 2030-0100z, weakest 0400-0500z and
1100-1200z, 15 meters 2100-2300z, 10 meters possibly around 2130z.

From the center of the continental U.S.A. (somewhere in Kansas), to
Germany, 80 meters 2300-0730z (best 0030-0600z), 40 meters
2130-0830z (best 2330-0530z), 20 meters 1300-2030z, 15 meters
1500-1830z, 10 meters possibly around 1630z. To Brazil, 80 meters
2330-0930z (best 0130-0830z), 40 meters 2300-1000z (best
0000-0830z), 20 meters 2030-0830z, 15 meters 1330-0030z, 10 meters
1430-2200z. To Australia, 80 meters 0900-1330z, 40 meters
0900-1430z, 20 meters 0700-1600z (best 1330-1500z), 15 meters
1500-1600z, 10 meters possibly 2230-0030z. To Japan, 80 meters
0700-1400z, (best 1030-1200z), 40 meters 0630-1500z (best
0830-1300z), 20 meters 1430-1730z and 1930-0300z, 15 meters
2100-0130z, 10 meters 2200-2330z.

From the West Coast to Germany, 80 meters 0030-0800z, 40 meters
2330-0930z (best 0200-0530z), 20 meters 1430-2000z, 15 meters
1600-1830z, 10 meters possibly around 1700z. To Brazil, 80 meters
0100-0930z, 40 meters 0000-1000z, 20 meters 2230-1130z (best
0130-0900z), 15 meters 1400-0230z (best later in the period), 10
meters 1500-0100z. To Australia, 80 meters 0830-1500z, 40 meters
0830-1530z, 20 meters 0700-1700z, 15 meters 1930-2030z and
0300-0500z, 10 meters 2200-0330z. To Japan, 80 meters 0730-1530z
(best 0900-1430z), 40 meters 0630-1600z, 20 meters 1430-1830z and
0200-0600z, 15 meters 2100-0330z, 10 meters 2200-0100z.

Sunspot numbers for October 19 through 25 were 128, 144, 166, 117,
143, 99 and 112 with a mean of 129.9. 10.7 cm flux was 157.8, 160.7,
158, 160.2, 166.5, 159.2 and 164, with a mean of 160.9, and
estimated planetary A indices were 9, 4, 4, 13, 15, 11 and 8 with a
mean of 9.1.


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