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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP037 (1996)

ARLP037 Propagation de KT7H

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37  ARLP037
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  September 6, 1996
To all radio amateurs

ARLP037 Propagation de KT7H

Solar activity was down only slightly last week compared to the week
previous.  Average solar flux and sunspot numbers were each down
about a point.  Solar flux peaked on the last day of August at 76.2,
the highest value since August 4.

Geomagnetic activity quieted down during the week after the
disturbances at the end of the month.  Quiet conditions should
continue until September 19, with the possibility of disturbances
peaking around September 25.

Solar flux should decline and drop below 70 after September 10, and
rise above 70 again about a week later.  It should peak again around
the mid seventies around September 23 or 24.

Sunspot Numbers for August 29 through September 4 were 20, 16, 26,
11, 13, 11 and 11, with a mean of 15.4.  10.7 cm flux was 73.5,
73.3, 76.2, 73.5, 72.3, 71.2, and 70.8, with a mean of 73.

This week we are doing a path projection for the All Asia DX Contest
from some points in the United States to Japan and Central Asia.

From the East Coast 80 meters looks good to Japan from 0930z to
1030z, and fair to Central Asia around 0000z.  40 meters looks good
to Japan around 0930z to 1130z, and to Central Asia from 2330z to
0100z.  20 meters should be good to Japan from 2100z to 2300z, and
to Central Asia around 1300z and again from 1530z to 1730z.  15
meters does not look promising, but to Japan check from 2130z to
0030z and Central Asia from 1530z to 1700z.

From the Central U.S. check 80 meters to Japan from 0900z to 1200z
and 40 meters from 1100z to 1300z.  80 and 40 do not look good to
Central Asia.  Check 20 meters to Japan from 2100z to 0000z and to
Central Asia from 0130z to 0200z and 1500z to 1730z.  15 meters
looks doubtful, but check Japan from 2130z to 0130z.

From the West Coast check 80 meters to Japan from 0900z to 1400z.
Check 40 meters to Japan from 0800z to 1500z and to Central Asia
from 1300z to 1400z.  Check 20 meters to Japan from 0200z to 0630z
and 2100z to 2200z and to Central Asia around 1600z to 1700z and
0100z to 0400z.  15 meters may have an opening to Japan from 2230z
to 0300z.

From Alaska check 80 meters from 0900z to 1700z to Japan and 1330z
to 1630z to Central Asia.  Check 40 meters to Japan from 0730z to
1830z and to Central Asia from 1230z to 1830z.  20 meters may be
open to Japan from 2000z to 1000z, but the best signals should be
around 2000z to 2100z and again from 0600z to 0730z.  The best 20
meter signals to Central Asia should be around 0100z to 0230z.
Signals to Asia from Alaska should be much stronger than from other
Continental U.S. locations.


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