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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP029 (2019)

ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 29  ARLP029
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  July 19, 2019
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

Very low solar activity continues.  Over the past week, average
daily solar flux changed insignificantly from 67.1 to 67.  There
were no sunspots.
Average daily planetary A index changed from 8.4 to 5.9, while
mid-latitude A index changed from 8.6 to 6.7.  Conditions remain
Predicted solar flux is 68 on July 19 to 26, and 67 on July 27 to
September 1.
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 19 to 22, 8 on July 23, 5
on July 24 to 27, 8 on July 28, 5 on July 29 through August 3, then
8, 15, 15 and 8 on August 4 to 7, 5 on August 8 to 10, then 10, 12
and 8 on August 11 to 13, 5 on August 14 to 23, 8 on August 24, 5 on
August 25 to 30, then 8 and 15 on August 31 through September 1.
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 19 til August 14,
2019 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest
"Geomagnetic field will be: 
Quiet on July 19, 24 and 25, August 2 and 3, 8, 13 and 14 
Quiet to unsettled on July 26 and 27, 29 to 31, August 1, 4, 9 
Quiet to active on July 20 to 23, August 7, 10 to 12 
Unsettled to active on July 28, August 5 and 6 
No active to disturbed days are predicted. 
Solar wind will intensify on August (2 and 3,) 7 and 8, (9 to 14) 
Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement." 
On July 17 reported a coronal hole spewing a stream
of solar wind, with arrival expected to cause minor geomagnetic
upset around July 19 and 20.
They also reported that so far in this calendar year 64 per cent  of
all days were without sunspots.  Last year the total number of
spotless days was 61%, 28% in 2017, 9% in 2016, and zero days were
spotless in 2011 to 2015, except for 2 days in 2011 and 1 day in
On Saturday morning, July 13, N4SO of Grand Bay, Alabama reported
"24.915 MHz FT8 digital mode.  Power is 15 watts.  Date was 12 July
testing a new antenna.
Worked K1HZ (Texas) (QRP 5 watts for first contact), W6SR
(California), K0TW (Arizona), K0COL (Colorado), KF7F (Utah), TG9AKH
(Guatemala), and K0JJ (Oregon).  I saw other DX but no contact.
The 12 meter band opened today (Saturday) with only 3 stations
calling CQ, W2SKI (Virginia), XE2YWB (Zacatecas, NW of Mexico City)
and VE2GCE (Quebec)."
VE6GK reported: "Almost 50 years since my first QSO and I still love
learning about and following the sunspot cycle."
Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW reported on July 12:
Also on July 12, KD4SR reported, in a message titled "Don't forget
Sporadic-E. Yesterday I worked P.R., HH, HI, PV, and VE from Central
Florida on 6 meters, 100 watts, FT8. Japan was worked by others.
Europe, Africa, and all over North and South America have been
regulars on 6 almost daily.  G5RV and ground plane antennas.  Summer
is Es season."
Jeff, N8II in Kentucky reported:
"The day before the IARU HF Championship, 10 meters opened fairly
well to Europe; around 2016Z I turned on the radio to find EA4ZK on
10 CW with a S6-8 signal and made an easy QSO.  This was followed by
CW QSOs with Belgium, Germany, Oliver, F6ARC in France, LZ1NK in
Bulgaria (moved up from 15M where he was S9, weak on 10), Karel,
OK1CF in Czech Republic, Italy, P44W in Aruba, and 8P5A, Barbados.
Also worked on 10M SSB were EC1KR in Spain and F4FPG. The last EU
QSO was OK1CF at 2217Z, an opening of at least 2 hours.
Chores prevented any activity in the contest on the 13th until 1910Z
when I found EI7M, Ireland on 10M CW. The 10M band was also wide
open to New England, NY, and FL.  Thanks to many IARU member
headquarters stations being on all bands whenever open, I managed
quite a few EU QSOs.
On CW, HQ stations in France, England, and later Belgium, Poland,
Czech Republic, and Slovenia were worked along with about 3 Germans,
Croatia, Belgium, Hungary, and England (last QSO at 2200Z).
On SSB at 1932Z I quickly worked 6 HQ stations in Croatia, France,
Serbia, Italy, and Switzerland, then later adding Germany.  It was
disappointing that there was almost no non-HQ activity on SSB.
The propagation highlight was hearing 4Z7ZZ in Israel Q5 copy here
calling IO8HQ in Italy; that is huge number of Es hops.  PX2A in
Brazil was also logged at 1916Z.
On 15 meters, the EU stations were more numerous as were many USA
stations in all parts of the country.  There was some propagation to
all of South America (Es to F2) and Hawaii was good copy via mostly
Es, I would guess.
By the time I managed some time on 20M, the Es to EU was largely
gone, but many EU HQ stations were still active with good signals.
Late in the evening past 0300Z I was called by ZL2BAQ and ZL4NR in
New Zealand, and VK4SP in Queensland, Australia on 20 SSB.
On CW around 0300Z, the band was open to ITU zones across Asiatic
Russia from Sakhalin Island to the Ural mountains, but activity was
40M was open well to the USA, Canada, and Europe from sunset through
0300Z, but the HQ station count was lower than expected.
NU1AW, the IARU HQ station in Newington, Connecticut was very active
on all bands.  It was easy making QSO's on both modes on 10 and 15M,
and CW on 20 and 40M."
Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW reports:
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Sunspot numbers for July 11 through 17, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 67.1, 66.8, 66, 67.2,
67.1, 67.2, and 67.8, with a mean of 67.  Estimated planetary A
indices were 8, 5, 6, 5, 7, 4, and 6, with a mean of 5.9.  Middle
latitude A index was 9, 5, 6, 6, 8, 5, and 8, with a mean of 6.7.


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