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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP017 (2003)

ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 17  ARLP017
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  April 25, 2003
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

Thanks so much to Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA for writing last week's
bulletin while your regular reporter was away.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose over the past week. Average
daily sunspot numbers were up over 44 points to 100.4, and solar
flux was nearly 17 points higher to 118.6. Solar wind and the
resulting geomagnetic instability that has been prevalent for the
past few weeks continued, and is expected to last at least through
this weekend.

The current outlook has the Friday through Monday planetary A index
for April 25-28 at 20, 25, 25 and 20. Current projections forecast
quiet conditions (where the A index is 10 or lower) for May 3-5, but
higher just before that period and for nearly two weeks following.
This is because of coronal holes rotating into view from April 29
through May 2 and again May 6-8. A large coronal hole should return
around May 12.

The reason for the unsettled to active geomagnetic forecast for this
weekend is because of an ongoing solar wind, and an active sunspot
that released two solar flares on Wednesday. This was not squarely
directed at earth, but could cause some mischief today. The most
active days recently were April 16-17, when planetary A indices were
31 and 30 and the K index went as high as 6. Over those same two
days the higher latitude college A index (measured in Alaska) was 54
and 50, and the K index went to 7, indicating a severe geomagnetic

Predicted solar flux is 128 and 130 for Friday and Saturday, April
25-26, and then around 135 through the next week. When the sun shows
some spots and geomagnetic indices are quiet, this is when HF
conditions are most promising. But lately with the decline in the
solar cycle, there haven't been many sunspots but there have been
enough flares and coronal holes to keep conditions unstable.
Current projections show this cycle hitting minimum around the end
of 2006 and the beginning of 2007. A few years after that we should
be back to where we are now (in terms of sunspots and solar flux)
and on the rise again.

For more information about propagation and an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin see the Propagation page on the ARRL
Web site at .

Sunspot numbers for April 17 through 23 were 37, 51, 69, 93, 154,
147, and 152, with a mean of 100.4. 10.7 cm flux was 101, 107.8,
112.1, 118.5, 125.8, 132.4, and 132.8 with a mean of 118.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 30, 20, 18, 16, 21, 22, and 18,
with a mean of 20.7.


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