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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP009 (2003)

ARLP009 Propagation de K9LA

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009
From Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA
Fort Wayne, IN  February 28, 2003
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP009 Propagation de K9LA

Tad Cook, K7VVV is out of town this week, so Carl Luetzelschwab,
K9LA, is filling in for him.

Solar activity during the reporting period February 21 through
February 27, was very low to low. The largest X-ray flare was a C5
event on Saturday. There were no radio blackouts (R in the WWV
announcement) or proton events (S in the WWV announcement) during
the period.

Geophysical activity was quiet to active from Friday through
Wednesday, and ranged from unsettled to minor storm on Thursday.
There were no significant geomagnetic storms (G in the WWV
announcement) during the period. The minor storminess on Thursday
only lasted about 9 hours.

Solar Cycle 23 continues its descent. Cycle 23 peaked in April 2000
with a smoothed sunspot number of 121. A second peak occurred in
November 2001 with a smoothed sunspot number of 116, which gave
6-meter aficionados worldwide F2 propagation. Cycle 23 is predicted
to reach its minimum in the 2006-2007 time frame.

This weekend is the ARRL International DX Phone Contest. For the
contest period, solar activity is expected to be low and the
geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled. This translates to
generally decent propagation.

Cycle 23's decline will take its toll on 10-meters, though the East
Coast should still have decent 10-meter openings into Europe and the
West Coast should still have decent 10-meter openings into Asia.

But 10-meter openings from the East Coast to Asia and from the West
Coast to Europe, along with openings to Europe and Asia from the
Midwest, could be tough. So enjoy 10-meters while you can. This
contest is also a good opportunity to work new countries for your
DXCC award.

Sunspot numbers for February 20 through 26 were 66, 87, 53, 41, 44,
48, and 45, with a mean of 54.9. 10.7 cm flux was 118.3, 119.6,
106.6, 104, 102, 101.6, and 109.4, with a mean of 108.8. Estimated
planetary A indices were 16, 13, 11, 11, 6, 5, and 16, with a mean
of 11.1.


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