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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP009 (2000)

ARLP009 Propagation de K7VVV

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA  March 3, 2000
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP009 Propagation de K7VVV

Solar activity really took a big jump over the past week. Average
solar flux was up almost 57 points from the previous week, and
average sunspot numbers were up nearly 66 points. Solar flux peaked
on Wednesday, March 1, with a reading of 232.8. Geomagnetic indices
were also higher. The peak day for the planetary A index was
Thursday, February 24 when it was 26. Planetary K indices were
mostly 4 for the day, but reached 5 at one point.

Last week's bulletin spoke of a predicted near term peak in solar
flux around Wednesday, but about 25 points lower.

The short term forecast for this week shows a declining solar flux
for Friday, March 3 through Tuesday, March 7 of 210, 210, 205, 195
and 190. Solar flux is expected to bottom-out near 145 around March
16 or 17, then rise above 200 again after March 23.

Unfortunately, the outlook for the ARRL International DX Phone
Contest this weekend is not positive, at least in terms of
geomagnetic indices. The predicted planetary A index for Friday
through Tuesday is 12, 28, 25, 20 and 15. It is a shame that the
predicted A index for Saturday and Sunday is 28 and 25, but it
sometimes comes with increased solar activity. Beyond the weekend
geomagnetic conditions should stay quiet until March 22 and 23, then
quiet down again until March 31 and April 1.

Contesters this weekend can always hope, and monitor WWV for updated
K indices. If the K index, which is updated every three hours, is
three or lower, that is a good sign. If you want the last solar
bulletin broadcast on WWV and want to use a telephone instead, dial

News from this week spoke of two
intense solar flares erupting on March 2, and another piece at was a story
about a polar substorm caused by solar wind, which it described as a
''gale of energetic particles from the sun.'' The cause of some of
the recent activity is described in an article at from NASA
Space Science News.

Sunspot numbers for February 24 through March 1 were 181, 202, 193,
201, 186, 211 and 247 with a mean of 203. 10.7 cm flux was 192.2
210.4, 214.8, 227.3, 218.8, 219 and 232.8, with a mean of 216.5, and
estimated planetary A indices were 26, 18, 12, 10, 12, 6 and 19,
with a mean of 14.7.

Are you in Texas, and planning on participating in this weekend's
contest? Then this path projection is for you. This is for Saturday,
March 4, from Dallas.

To Western Europe, 80 meters 2330-0730z (best 0300-0600z), 40 meters
2300-0830z (best 0130-0630z), 20 meters 2100-0600z, 15 meters
1330-2200z, 10 meters 1500-1930z.

To Eastern Europe, 80 meters 0030-0530z (best 0200-0400z), 40 meters
2330-0700z (best 0030-0400z), 20 meters 2130-0530z, 15 meters
1400-1900z, 10 meters 1600-1700z.

To European Russia, 80 meters 0030-0500z, 40 meters 0000-0700z, 20
meters 2130-0530z, 15 meters 1400-1800z, 10 meters possibly

To Southern Africa, 80 meters 0000-0430z, 40 meters 0000-0500z, 20
meters 2300-0530z, 15 meters 2100-0230z, 10 meters 2030-2300z.

To South America, 80 meters 0000-1030z (best 0330-0900z), 40 meters
0000-1100z, 20 meters 2300-1200z, 15 meters 2030-0930z, 10 meters

To the Caribbean, 80 meters 2330-1130z (best 0300-1000z), 40 meters
2230-1300z (best 0100-1030z), 20 meters open all hours, best
0030-1100z, weakest 1600-1900z, 15 meters 1230- 0300z, 10 meters

To Australia, 80 meters 0930-1300z, 40 meters 0900-1330z, 20 meters
0830-1430z, 15 meters 0630-1100z, 10 meters possibly 2200-0300z.

To Japan, 80 meters 0830-1330z, 40 meters 0830-1400z, 20 meters
1300-1500z and 0630-0900z, 15 meters 2100-0300z, 10 meters


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