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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP006 (2001)

ARLP006 Propagation de K7VVV

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6  ARLP006
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA  February 9, 2001
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP006 Propagation de K7VVV

Average daily sunspot numbers were up almost ten points and solar
flux was up about one point for the past week, when compared to the
previous week.  This seems to be a period of quiet sun, and the
trend is expected to continue.  Projected average daily solar flux
for the next 45 days is expected to be about 163, and this is in
line with current daily values.

Solar flux peaked at 170 on Tuesday, and is expected to drop over
the next few days.  Projected flux values for Friday through Monday,
February 12, are 155 for Friday, and 150 for the next three days.
Flux values are expected to meander between 155 and 165 until
February 21-24, when they are expected to rise to 170 again.
Another peak just above these values is expected around March 7,
although it is really too early to tell.

Even with a quiet sun, there have been some unsettled geomagnetic
conditions, but no real geomagnetic storms.  February 6 was a bit
unsettled, but the planetary K index only briefly reached 4.  The
planetary A index for the day was 11, which was also the mid-
latitude A index.  The projected planetary A index for the near term
is mostly in the single digits.  A forecast received today from the
Solar Department of the Astronomical Institute in Ondrejov, Czech
Republic shows quiet conditions on February 11, 14 and 15, and quiet
to unsettled conditions on February 9, 10, 12 and 13.

Here are some path projections for propagation this weekend from
somewhere near the center of the continental United States, actually
just northwest of Lebanon, Kansas.

To Western Europe, 80 meters 2230-0800z (best 0230-0630z), 40 meters
2130-1100z (best 0030-0730z), 30 meters 2030-1200z (best
2330-0730z), 20 meters 1400-0030z, 17 meters 1330-0030z, 15 meters
1430-2030z, 12 meters 1500-1930z, 10 meters 1600-1830z.

To Eastern Europe, 80 meters 2330-0630z (best 0030-0130z and around
0500z), 40 meters 2230-0800z (best 0000-0430z), 30 meters 2130-0900z
(best 0030-0500z), 20 meters 1400-1600z and 1900-2130z, 17 meters
1500-1830z, 15 meters 1530-1730z.

To Central Asia, 80 meters 0000-0130z, 40 meters 2330-0200z, 30
meters 2230-0230z and 1200-1430z, 20 meters 1430-0400z.

To Southern Africa, 80 meters 2330-0430z, 40 meters 2300-0500z, 30
meters 2230-0500z, 20 meters 2200-0330z, 17 meters 2000-0030z, 15
meters 1930-2330z, 12 meters 1430-2230z, 10 meters 1630-2130z.

To South America, 80 meters 0000-1000z (best 0230-0900z), 40 meters
0000-1030z (best 0030-0900z), 30 meters 2330-1100z (best
0100-0900z), 20 meters 2200-0900z and around 1130z, 17 meters
2200-0200z and 1300-1400z, 15 meters 1330-1500z and 2030-0100z, 12
meters 1400-0000z, 10 meters 1500-2230z.

To Australia, 80 meters 0930-1400z, 40 meters 0930-1500z, 30 meters
0830-1500z, 20 meters 0830-1130z and 1300-1600z, 17 meters
1500-1600z, 15 meters 1530-1630z.

To Japan, 80 meters 0730-1430z (best 1100-1300z), 40 meters
0700-1500z (best 0900-1300z), 30 meters 0630-1600z (best
0900-1300z), 20 meters 1430-1730z, 17 meters 2100-0300z, 15 meters
2130-0200z, 12 meters 2200-0030z, 10 meters 2200-2330z.

Sunspot numbers for February 1 through 7 were 141, 109, 149, 164,
157, 161 and 163 with a mean of 149.1. 10.7 cm flux was 160.9,
166.3, 163.6, 164, 165.3, 170 and 164, with a mean of 164.9, and
estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 2, 2, 3, 11 and 5 with a
mean of 5.


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