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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP006 (1997)

ARLP006 Propagation de KT7H

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6  ARLP006
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  February 7, 1997
To all radio amateurs

ARLP006 Propagation de KT7H

Solar activity rose a bit this week, but only slightly, with the
solar flux above the 90 day average of 77 for three days.  Average
sunspot numbers were almost three times the average for the previous
week.  Geomagnetic activity was slightly lower.

The geomagnetic field became disturbed a couple of days before this
reporting period (on January 28) because of a high speed solar
windstream from a coronal hole on the Sun.  This caused a
geomagnetic storm, more pronounced at higher latitudes, which
resulted in the usual absorption of signals and poor conditions.

There is a possibility for some slightly unsettled geomagnetic
conditions over the next few days, and again, but a bit more severe
around February 22 to 24.  Solar flux is expected to drop down to
the lower or mid-seventies until February 21, when it is expected to
rise again, going above eighty after March 1.

Sunspot Numbers for January 30 through February 5 were 15, 13, 14,
36, 45, 44 and 33 with a mean of 28.6.  10.7 cm flux was 73.6, 72.4,
71.3, 78.4, 79.6, 80.7 and 75.3, with a mean of 75.9.  Estimated
planetary A indices for the same period were 11, 8, 6, 10, 7, 5, and
7, with a mean of 7.7.

Here are a couple of path projections for this week, from California
to Japan and from Ohio to Europe.

From California to Japan, check 80 meters from 0730z to 1530z, 40
meters from 0630z to 1700z, 30 meters around 0430z, 1230z, and 1600z
to 1900z, and 20 meters from 2200z to 0130z.  17 meters should be
good from 2230z to 0030z and 15 meters around 2300z.

From Ohio to Europe, check 80 meters from 2200z to 0800z, 40 meters
from 2100z to 0100z and from 0530z to 0900z, 30 meters from 1400z to
1830z and around 2000z, and 20 meters from 1530z to 1730z.


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