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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP005 (1995)

ARLP005 Propagation de KT7H
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5  ARLP005
>From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  January 27, 1995
To all radio amateurs 
ARLP005 Propagation de KT7H
Solar activity was way up last week, while geomagnetic activity was
low.  The combination of high solar flux and low A and K indices
meant unexpected improved conditions.  The best numbers were
probably on January 24 when the solar flux peaked at 97 and the A
index was only three.  The K index was only one through most of the
day, marking quiet and stable HF conditions.
Solar flux should drop slowly, crossing the 90 level by the end of
this month.  It should bottom out around 78 in the first week in
February and then peak again near 90 around February 18.  Look for
unsettled conditions around January 30 and more active geomagnetic
conditions around February 13 and 14.
Conditions should be stable for the 160 meter contest this weekend,
with A indices at 10 or below.
Current projections show the current cycle transitioning to the next
solar cycle and solar flux reaching a minimum around the Fall of
next year.  As reflected in sunspot count, the low point should be
in the Spring of 1996.  Average solar activity will probably not
rise back to the current level until the Fall of 1997.
Sunspot Numbers for January 19 through 25 were 79, 87, 78, 93, 86,
87 and 79, with a mean of 84.1.  10.7 cm flux was 90.2, 92.5, 96.5,
95.5, 96, 97.1 and 89.6, with a mean of 93.9.
Path projections for this week are to the Bahamas from Seattle,
Washington and Anchorage, Alaska.
>From Anchorage, 80 meters should be open from 0130z to 1130z, and 40
meters from 2330z to 1300z.  Check 30 meters from 2200z to 0030z.
20 meters looks good from 1830z to 2230z, and 17 meters from 1930z
to 2130z.  On some days 15 meters may open from 1930z to 2100z.
>From Seattle, check 80 meters from 0030z to 1230z, and 40 meters
from 2300z to 1200z.  30 meters should be good from 1530z to 0130z,
and 20 meters from 1530z to 2330z.  17 meters should be open from
1700z to 2200z, and 15 meters from 1800z to 2100z.  On some days 12
meters may be open from 1900z to 2030z, and a few occasions 10
meters could have a path as early as 1830z and as late as 2130z.


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