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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP002 (2006)

ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  January 13, 2006
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

Geomagnetic conditions have been very, very quiet. This week has
seen many periods when the K index, both planetary and mid-latitude,
was 0 or 1. The average planetary/mid-latitude K index this week
dropped from 5.4/5.1 (last week) to 3.3/3.4, respectively.

Of course, this low in the solar cycle, it is not surprising that
sunspot numbers and solar flux dropped also. Average daily sunspot
numbers dropped by 35 points from last week to 14.7, and solar flux
was down 7.5 points to an average of 79.4.

Over the next week expect these conditions to stay the same, with
possibly some slightly unsettled geo-activity on January 16.

Users of Canada's Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory data
(such as me) were caught off-guard this week when our source of
thrice-daily solar flux readings seemed to disappear from the net.

By Googling around and using a freeware program called Xenu Link
Sleuth (a handy desktop web spidering application, which you can
also find via a Google search) I finally discovered the new home of
the Current Flux Archive. It now appears at
The observatory's servers seem to have moved from to the
much longer domain shown in the URL.

More 10 meter mail arrived this week. Glenn Stewart, N7NRA of Mesa,
Arizona reminds us to check for beacons between 28.2 and 28.3 MHz.
Glenn says, "If you hear beacons, there is a very good likelihood
that you can raise a PSK31 contact or two by calling CQ on PSK at
28.120. If you get lucky and find half a dozen or so PSK signals at
28.120, and if some of them are strong, head for 28.345 - 28.350 and
call CQ on Phone. Chances are excellent that you'll raise a phone
contact or two. The band's not dead. The problem is that everyone is
listening. No one is calling CQ. Give it a try!"

Also in Arizona, and on 10 meters, is Hank Pfizenmayer, K7HP in
Phoenix, about 15 miles northwest of N7NRA. He said that on December
26, 2005 on 10 meters from 2137-2220z he worked KP2L, KP4DKE, S9SS,
MM0SLH, VE3FGU and ZL1BYZ. The next day he worked ZL2BSJ, ZL1BYZ and
ZL3KR. He says, "I listen just about every day to the 10 meter
beacons, usually a couple times at least, and it would be easier to
list days that I do not hear a beacon somewhere. I have found I can
call CQ on CW for long periods with no activity at all even though I
am hearing beacons all over the east coast."

Bob Skaggs, KB5RX in Santa Fe, New Mexico says he has been listening
to 17 meters later, and observed, "When local sunset occurs, the
band goes dead within 5 minutes. From 10 over 9 to nothing in less
than 7 minutes. Not like when the sunspot activity is high where the
band slowly fades."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at,

For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation
of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical
Information Service propagation page at, An archive of past
propagation bulletins is found at,

Sunspot numbers for January 5 through 11 were 23, 24, 11, 11, 11, 11
and 12 with a mean of 14.7. 10.7 cm flux was 83.4, 82, 79.2, 78.2,
77.6, 77.8, and 77.3, with a mean of 79.4. Estimated planetary A
indices were 3, 6, 5, 4, 2, 1 and 2 with a mean of 3.3. Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 3, 6, 6, 5, 1, 2 and 1, with a mean of


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