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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP002 (2001)

ARLP002 Propagation de K7VVV

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA  January 12, 2001
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP002 Propagation de K7VVV

Last week's propagation bulletin erroneously reported, along with
some other sources, that the Japan International CW DX Contest was
the following weekend. It actually occurs this coming weekend, on
January 13 and 14.

Average sunspot numbers were up over the past week, and solar flux
was down, probably reaching a low on Wednesday. The predicted solar
flux for January 12-15 is 170, 175, 180 and 185. Solar flux is
expected to peak below 200 around January 17, but not drop back to
180 until January 25. Very quiet geomagnetic conditions are forecast
through the end of the month, the exception being this weekend, with
a slightly unsettled planetary A index around 12. Otherwise look for
A indices in the low single digits.

The unsettled conditions are predicted because of a full-halo
coronal mass ejection on Wednesday, but the effect is uncertain.

Scott Craig has made some slight modifications to his solar data
plotting software, and here at K7VVV it now seems to work with
Windows 2000. Download the new version 3.09w from

Since the JA DX contest mentioned last week is actually running this
weekend, here are some path projections updated from last week. All
paths are to Japan on 160, 80 and 40 meters.

From Seattle, 160 meters 0800-1630z, 80 meters 0730-1700z, 40 Meters
0630-1830z. From San Francisco, 160 meters 0800-1600z, 80 Meters
0730-1600z, 40 meters 0630-1700z. From Los Angeles, 160 Meters
0800-1530z, 80 meters 0730-1600z, 40 meters 0630-1630. From Hawaii,
160 meters 0730-1800z, 80 meters 0700-1800z, 40 meters 0630-1900z.
From Salt Lake City, 160 meters 0800-1530z, 80 meters 0730-1600z, 40
meters 0630-1700z. From Arizona, 160 meters 0800z-1430z, 80 meters
0730-1530z, 40 meters 0630-1600z. From Dallas, 160 meters
0730-1330z, 80 meters 0700- 1430z, 40 meters 0700-1530z.

From the center of the continental U.S., 160 meters 0730-1400z, 80
meters 0700-1500z, 40 meters 0630-1600z. From Atlanta, 160 meters
0800-1300z, 80 meters 0730-1300z, 40 meters 0700-1400z. From
Philadelphia, 160 meters 0730-1300z, 80 meters 0700-1330z, 40 meters
0700-1400z. From Chicago, 160 meters 0730-1400z, 80 meters
0700-1430z, 40 meters 0700-1500z. From Cleveland, 160 meters
0730-1330z, 80 meters 0700-1400z, 40 meters 0730-1530z. From Boston,
160 meters 0730-1300z, 80 meters 0700-1330z, 40 meters 0700-1400z.

Sunspot numbers for January 4 through 10 were 180, 158, 172, 183,
167, 140 and 139 with a mean of 162.7.  10.7 cm flux was 174.6,
176.3, 179.4, 176.7, 167.1, 166.3 and 162.8, with a mean of 171.9,
and estimated planetary A indices were 10, 6, 6, 5, 10, 5 and 4 with
a mean of 6.6.


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