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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP002 (1999)

ARLP002 Propagation de K7VVV

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA  January 8, 1999
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP002 Propagation de K7VVV

Solar activity was down this week, which was no surprise, since on
one day the previous week the solar flux reached a new high for the
current cycle.  But the drop in solar was quicker than expected.
Last week's bulletin projected flux values above 150 until January
12, but on Monday through Thursday of this week flux values were
146.9, 136.5, 125.8, and 115.1.  This represents a drop in flux
values of nearly seventy points in a little over a week.

For this weekend, the projected flux values for Friday through
Sunday are 115, 120 and 120, with a planetary A index of 12, 12 and
8.  At least while solar activity has been dropping, there haven't
been any disturbed days from solar flares or coronal holes.

Beyond this weekend look for a rising solar flux, going above 130 by
January 16 and to 150 around January 20.  Conditions are currently
expected to peak around January 24 or 25 with solar flux under 155.
This will be 27 days, or one complete rotation of the sun after the
recent high in solar flux for this cycle.

This week had some interesting VHF news.  N5JHV in New Mexico worked
several VK2 stations on 6 meters on January 2 after a long opening
to the west coast of Mexico.  On the same day CO2OJ worked a number
of U.S. stations on the same band.

Sunspot Numbers for December 31 through January 6 were 135, 121,
107, 113, 94, 87 and 70 with a mean of 103.9.  10.7 cm flux was
174.6, 167.2, 160.1, 154.5, 146.9, 136.5 and 125.8, with a mean of
152.2, and estimated planetary A indices were 3, 5, 7, 4, 7, 8 and
9, with a mean of 6.1.

Here are some path projections to Japan for the JA International DX
CW Test this weekend.

From Seattle, check 80 meters around 0600-1800z, with best
conditions around 0830-1000z.  40 meters should be good from
0600-1900z.  Check 20 meters from 2100-0130z, and 15 meters from
2230-0030z.  The best bet for 10 meters is 2300-2330z.

From Los Angeles, check 80 meters around 0700-1600z, 40 meters at
0530-1700, 20 meters at 2100-0300z, 15 meters from 2200-0130z, and
10 meters around 2230-0030z.

From the center of the USA, 80 meters looks good from 0730-1430z, 40
meters around 0630-1530z, 20 meters from 2100-0030z, and 10 and 15
meters around 2230z.

From Texas, 80 meters should open 0730-1400z, 40 meters around
0700-1500z, 20 meters at 2100-0100z, and 15 meters around

From Ohio, check 80 meters at 0700-1400z, 40 meters at 0630-1500z,
20 meters around 1530-1730z and 2100-2300z, and 15 meters around

From Boston, 80 meters should be open 0730-1300z, 40 meters at
2030-2300z and 0630-1430z, and 20 meters around 1530-1700z and


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