SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP035
ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA
ZCZC AP35
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 35 ARLP035
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA August 26, 2016
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP035
ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA
Solar activity over the past week (August 18 to 24) was down
compared to the previous week, with average daily sunspot number
declining from 73.9 to 33.9, and average daily solar flux from 89.2
to 79.6.
Average planetary A index increased from 6.9 to 9.7, while the
mid-latitude number rose from 7.4 to 8.7.
The latest prediction (on August 25, 2016) shows expected solar flux
at 78 on August 26 to 29, 80 on August 30 and 31, 85 on September 1
to 3, 90 on September 4 to 10, 88 on September 11 and 12, 85 on
September 13, 80 on September 14 and 15, then 78 and 75 on September
16 and 17, 80 on September 18 to 20, 84 on September 21 and 22, then
82, 80 and 78 on September 23 to 25, 75 on September 26 to 28, 80
and 85 on September 29 and 30, and 90 on October 1 to 7.
Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 8 on August 26 to 28, then
20, 25 and 12 on August 29 to 31, 10 on September 1 and 2, 12 on
September 3 and 4, 15 on September 5 and 6, then 8 and 10 on
September 7 and 8, 5 on September 9 to 12, 10 and 8 on September 13
and 14, 5 on September 15 and 16, then 8, 7, 8, 12 and 8 on
September 17 to 21, 5 on September 22 to 24, then 15, 25 and 18 on
September 25 to 27, 15 on September 28 and 29, 12 on September 30 to
October 1, and 15 on October 2 and 3.
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 26 to September
21, 2016 from Petr Kolman, OK1MGW.
Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on August 27
Mostly quiet on August 26, September 9 to 11, 14 to 16, 18
Quiet to unsettled on August 31, September 1 to 3, 6 to 8, 12, 17
Quiet to active on August 28 to 30, September 4 and 5, 13, 19 to 21
Active to disturbed on August (29 and 30)
Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on August 28
to 30, September 4 and 5, 12 and 13, 17, 19 to 21
Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
NOAA released an interesting bulletin regarding a new site for
watching Total Electron Content of the ionosphere.
But first, their page defining TEC:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/total-electron-content
And now, the announcement:
SWPC has deployed an updated and expanded version of its US Total
Electron Content (US-TEC) model. The model can now use more GPS
stations, has increased coverage to all of North America and added
scale information that indicates position error. Now, two web pages
are supported by the model, North American Total Electron Content:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/north-american-total-electron-content
And, US Region Total Electron Content:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/north-american-total-electron-content-us-region
Both are currently hosted on our experimental pages for customer
evaluation before being promoted formally to operations. Promotion
to operations is planned for 9/26. At the same time the current
US-TEC model will be decommissioned. Comments on the updated model
can be provided on our feedback page:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/contact-us
Andy Gudas, N7TP of Amargosa Valley, Nevada sent this article,
another one about artificial ionosphere.
http://dailym.ai/2bcIR2N
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
the numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of
past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for August 18 through 24 were 54, 37, 12, 11, 33,
47, and 43, with a mean of 33.9. 10.7 cm flux was 82.4, 80.8, 78.1,
76.7, 80, 81.3, and 78, with a mean of 79.6. Estimated planetary A
indices were 7, 5, 4, 10, 5, 18, and 19, with a mean of 9.7.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 5, 4, 9, 6, 12, and 17,
with a mean of 8.7.
NNNN
/EX
