SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de KT7H

ZCZC AP37
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16  ARLP016
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  April 19, 1996
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de KT7H

Solar flux remained low last week, but the geomagnetic field was
quite active, making conditions lousy.  There were several more days
of no sunspots, but frequent periods with a K index of four and five
increased absorption of radio waves.

When conditions stabilize in the next few days look for 30 and 40
meters to provide the best chance of worldwide DX.  After April 24
the K and A indices should be quite low again, and though there
won't be much ionizing radiation from the Sun, at least conditions
will be stable.  Look for a return to unstable periods after May 10.
Solar flux should stay around 70 or lower, falling into the high
sixties after April 26.

KE7QJ asked about the 199 solar flux figure forecast for August,
2000 and mentioned in ARLP014.  This is a projected average for the
month, and it is also a guess based upon previous solar cycles.  We
hope that peak levels in the Summer and Fall of that year will be
higher on some days.

Questions about this topic or other propagation issues can be
emailed to the author at tad at ssc.com, or via the packet radio
address at KT7H at N7DUO.WA.USA.NOAM.

Sunspot Numbers for April 11 through 17 were 0, 13, 13, 0, 0, 12 and
14, with a mean of 7.4.  10.7 cm flux was 68, 68.3, 68.8, 68.7, 68,
68.3 and 69.3, with a mean of 68.5.
NNNN
/EX