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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP011 (1996)

ARLP011 Propagation de KT7H

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11  ARLP011
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  March 15, 1996
To all radio amateurs

ARLP011 Propagation de KT7H

Solar flux and sunspot numbers were about the same last week as
the week previous.  March 11 was quite disturbed, with the K index
as high as 6 and an A index of 28 for the day.  Conditions are
expected to become unsettled again through March 17, and again on
March 22 and 23 and April 6 and 7.

Expect solar flux values to continue to drift between 70 and 75
here at the bottom of the sunspot cycle.  The latest projection
from the NOAA Space Environment Service Center shows the sunspot
number bottoming out between April and June of this year, and the
solar flux reaching minimum between December of this year and
February of 1997.  For the solar flux, this is a bit sooner than
any previously forecast.   Two years out look for average flux
values about 20 points higher than they are now, perhaps in the
mid to high nineties.

Sunspot Numbers for March 7 through 13 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 18, 27 and
24, with a mean of 9.9.  10.7 cm flux was 67.8, 69.8, 67.5, 69.1,
71.8, 73.2 and 71.3, with a mean of 70.1.

The path projections for this week are from the center of the U.S.
to Western Europe, Southern Africa, South America, South Pacific
and Japan.

To Western Europe look for 80 meters to open from 0030z to 0700z,
40 meters from 2330z to 0700z and 30 meters around 2100z.  20
meters looks good from 1430z to 2000z, and 17 meters around 1800z.

To Southern Africa expect 80 to open from 0100z to 0400z, 40 from
0030z to 0430z, 30 from 2300z to 0230z, 20 from 2000z to 2300z, 17
from 1700z to 1930z and 15 from 1800z to 1900z.

To South America check 80 from 0100z to 1000z, 40 from 0000z to
1030z, 30 from 2300z to 1030z with a weak period around 0900z, 20
from 2000z to 0200z, 17 from 1430z to 0100z and 15 from 1600z to

To South Pacific 80 should open from 0600z to 1300z, 40 from 0500z
to 1400z, 30 from 0400z to 1430z, 20 around 1700z to 1830z and
0130z to 0330z, 17 from 1730z to 0100z and 15 from 1800z to 2300z.

To Japan check 80 from 0900z to 1300z, 40 from 0830z to 1400z, 30
from 1330z to 1530z and again around 0700z, 20 from 2100z to 0130z
and 17 from 2200z to 0000z.


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