Solar activity was lower this reporting week, November 14-20, with
the average daily sunspot number down from 141.6 to 99.3, and solar
flux from 203.7 to 152.4. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet.

This follows a period during August and October when it seemed we
must be at the peak of Solar Cycle 25. But we won't know that until
nearly a year after solar max, when a long moving average of daily
sunspot numbers is examined.

Predicted solar flux is 170 on November 22, 175 on November 23-24,
180 on November 25-26, 175 and 180 on November 27-28, 250 on
November 29-30, then 240, 230, 220, and 210 on December 1-4, 205 on
December 5-6, then 200, 180, 170 and 150 on December 7-10, 145 on
December 11-12, then 149, 145, and 230 on December 13-15, 235 on
December 16-17, 240 on December 18-20, 245 on December 21-22, then
240, 245 and 255 on December 23-25.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 22-25, 5 on November
26-29, then 10, 12, 9, 8, 7 and 5 on November 30 through December 5,
12 on December 6-7, then 10, 5, 5, 10, 15 and 10 on November 8-13,
then 8 on December 14-15, then 5 and 12 on December 16-17, and 5 on
December 18-21.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 21, 2024, from F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"During November, solar activity was relatively lowest in the middle
of the month, which happened after the large sunspot groups in the
west of the disk had set and before the larger groups in the east
came out. The largest of these is designated AR3901 and will pass
through the central meridian on November 23. Solar activity will
therefore still increase slightly. A more significant rise could
perhaps be expected after the rise of the other groups, but their
current activity on the far side of the Sun does not appear to be
great for now.

"The low number and small area of coronal holes are the likely cause
of the geomagnetically quieter development, which is likely to
continue.

"November belongs to the Autumn DX season, Therefore we can expect
continued above-average shortwave propagation. They were admittedly
a little worse as a result of the drop in solar radiation, but the
rest of the month could, yet, correct this. Which is true for the
northern hemisphere of the Earth, where the season of favorable
propagation conditions on the longer shortwave bands is already
beginning!"

Images from the European Space Agency:

https://tinyurl.com/42r665y9

From "Space Daily," solar orbiter images:

https://tinyurl.com/bdz33ake

https://tinyurl.com/yvkf66u2

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 14 through 20, 2024 were 96, 71, 71,
117, 118, 109, and 113, with a mean of 99.3. 10.7 cm flux was 146.8,
148.9, 139.9, 146.3, 165, 157.2, and 162.6, with a mean of 152.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 13, 8, 8, 4, 9, and 9, with a
mean of 8.9. Middle latitude A Index was 10, 10, 8, 6, 3, 6, and 8,
with a mean of 7.3.