= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows =

Over March 14 to 20, new sunspot groups emerged every day except
March 19. March 18 had two, and each of the other days saw one new
sunspot group.  It is now Spring in the Northern Hemisphere which is
favorable to HF conditions, and solar and geomagnetic numbers both
show improvement.  Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 82.3 to
94.3, and average daily solar flux jumped from 130.4 to 153.3.
Geomagnetic indicators were very quiet, with the average daily
planetary A index dropping from 8.9 to 5.9, and middle latitude
numbers from 7 to 5.  Predicted solar flux is 180 and 178 on March
22 and 23, 174 on March 24 and 25, then 176 on March 26 and 27, 178
on March 28, 165 on March 29 and 30, 160 on March 31, 155 on April 1
to 3, then 158 on April 4, 160 on April 5 and 6, then 162, 155, 150,
and 145 on April 7 to 10, 148 on April 11 and 12, then 152, 155,
160, 162, 165 and 160 on April 13 to 18, then 155 on April 19 and
20, 152 on April 21, 160 on April 22 and 23, then 162, 165, 165 and
160 on April 24 to 27, and 155 on April 28 to 30.  Predicted
planetary A index is 12, 5, 16, 18 and 8 on March 22 to 26, then 5,
5 and 8 on March 27 to 29, 5 on March 30 through April 2, then 15,
12 and 12 on April 3 to 5, 5 on April 6 to 8, 8 on April 9 to 11,
then 5 on April 12 to 23, 10 on April 24 and 25, and 5 on April 26
to 29.  Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the
Earths Ionosphere, March 21, 2024, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH, Solar
activity on average continues to increase toward the Solar Cycle 25
maximum. This included a shower of protons that came from the
admittedly smaller in X ray intensity but primarily long lived flare
on the morning hours UTC of March 15. The particle density peaked a
day later when the proton event reached S1. High polar cap
absorption of radio waves was recorded at the same time.  The
geomagnetic field remains mostly calm, with the occurrence of short
active intervals. An increase in geomagnetic activity was expected
after the eruption of 17 March. A partial CME halo was observed and
ejected particles were expected in the vicinity of the Earth first
on 20 March, then on the evening of 20 March, and then on the
morning of 21 March. The result was an increase in MUF already in
the forenoon UTC.  An increase in the Earths magnetic field activity
occurred in the afternoon.  The new sunspot group AR3615, which
emerged in the southeast of the solar disk, although not yet large,
has a complex magnetic structure. This configuration increases the
probability of magnetic reconnection during a solar flare.
Especially if an X class solar flare occurs, the probability of CME
will increase.  The links to articles on radio blackout, sunspot
radiation, spaceweather, ARRL informational pages, solar indices,
and recent videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW can be found in
teleprinter, packet, and Internet versions of Propagation Forecast
Bulletin ARLP012.  Sunspot numbers were 88, 49, 67, 86, 127, 123,
and 120, with a mean of 94.3. 10.7 cm flux was 127.1, 129, 144.1,
151.3, 177.4, 168.9, and 175.5, with a mean of 153.3.  Estimated
planetary A indices were 8, 8, 3, 3, 6, 9, and 4, with a mean of
5.9. Middle latitude A index was 7, 8, 3, 2, 5, 7, and 3, with a
mean of 5.  The Public Notice can be found in PDF format at,
//docs.fcc.gov/public/ .  The FCC recommends that users confirm they
have access to their username account email and to add a secondary
email address, if need be.  Resources are available for those who
need assistance with the system. For inquiries or assistance
regarding the implementation of multifactor authentication on CORES,
submit a help request at //www.fcc.gov/wtbhelp, or call the FCC at
877 480 3201, Monday through Friday, 8 AM to 6 PM ET.
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