= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows =

Sunspot numbers rose this week, with the average changing from 139.4
to 149.6, but average daily solar flux only shifted from 179.2 to
178.  Only four sunspot groups emerged this week. There was one on
June 15 and three on June 19.  Average daily planetary A index only
changed from 11.6 to 10.3.  Predicted solar flux is 205 and 210 on
June 21 and 22, then 200 June 23 to 27, then 190, 185, and 190, on
June 28 to 30, then 190, 195, 190, 185 and 190 on July 1 to 5, 180
on July 6 and 7, 165 on July 8 and 9, 180 on July 10, then 170 on
July 11 to 13, 175 on July 14, 180 on July 15 to 17, 175 on July 18
and 19, 190 on July 20 and 21, then 180, 175, 180, 190, 180, 185 and
190 on July 22 to 28.  Predicted planetary A index is 10, 12 and 10
on June 21 to 23, then 5 on June 24 to 29, 8 on Jun 30 to July 1,
then 5 on July 2 to 14, then 12, 8, 8, and 5 on July 15 to 18, 8 on
July 19 and 20, and 5 on July 21 to 26, then 8 on July 27 and 28.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earths
Ionosphere, June 20, 2024, from OK1HH.  F.K. Janda is going on
vacation and will not have a report for us over the next few weeks.
Watching the Sun at its current 11 year peak of activity is
certainly not boring. On the contrary, we are experiencing quite
frequent surprises. For example, a week ago we observed an increased
attenuation of radio waves in the polar region, PCA equals POLAR CAP
ABSORPTION EVENT, caused by protons coming from the far side of the
Sun. Then, on 15 June, at 1157 UTC, a cloud of particles
unexpectedly hit the Earth, triggering a weak G1 class geomagnetic
storm.  Over the next few days, AR3712 became larger, followed by
AR3713 and AR3716. All three of these large sunspot groups are
already located in the western half of the solar disk, where
particles from a possible larger flare are more likely to hit Earth.
In addition, all three regions have an unstable magnetic field and
are therefore more likely to have M  or X class flares.  Of the
largest sunspot groups observed this cycle, two will soon reappear
on the eastern limb of the solar disk, in May they were designated
AR3663 and AR3664. The first of these will begin to emerge on the
solar disk this weekend. The second, and then largest group, will
follow a few days after that. Fortunately, solar activity will
remain high, but unfortunately, changes in propagation conditions
will be harder to predict.  Links to articles from ARRL
informational pages, solar indices, solar information, the latest
report from Dr. Skov, WX6SWW, and solar images can be found in
teleprinter, packet, and Internet versions of 2024 Propagation
Forecast Bulletin ARLP023.  Send your tips, reports, observations,
questions, and comments to k7ra at arrl.net. When reporting
observations, dont forget to tell us which mode you were operating.
Sunspot numbers were 142, 117, 134, 152, 171, 150, and 181, with a
mean of 149.6. 10.7 cm flux was 170.1, 169, 170.7, 167.3, 179.9,
192.7, and 196, with a mean of 178.  Estimated planetary A indices
were 4, 6, 19, 13, 11, 10, and 9, with a mean of 10.3. Middle
latitude A index was 5, 8, 18, 9, 11, 11, and 9, with a mean of
10.1.

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